The world's most important oil price indicator has just surpassed $100, and various signs indicate that it will continue to rise. According to the Zhitong Finance APP, data from S&P Global Platts shows that the North Sea Brent crude oil futures contract reached $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday, the first time since 2014. The spot premium in the futures market indicates that we are currently in one of the most supply constrained crude oil markets in history.

Crude oil futures prices have fluctuated back and forth this week, and traders are nervously trying to keep up with the latest geopolitical developments. Recently, due to the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has stated that it is ready to impose sanctions on Russia, which will limit crude oil supply and provide support for oil prices.

However, earlier today, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani stated on social media that after weeks of intensive negotiations, an agreement is now closer than ever before. Due to the possibility of paving the way for the United States to lift sanctions on Iran, oil prices fell in response.

Under the reopening of the global economy, crude oil consumption has surged, and strong demand has exceeded the expectations of some organizations, including the International Energy Agency. The global crude oil market is becoming increasingly hot. At the same time, OPEC+was unable to achieve its predetermined production targets, further leading to tight supply.

In addition, after reaching the largest bullish spot premium structure since 2019 earlier this week, the premium (spot spread) between Brent crude oil near month contracts and next month contracts has further widened. Data shows that the six-month Brent crude oil futures spread reached $8.74 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since 2007. The spot premium in the crude oil market indicates that traders are willing to pay high prices to ensure that crude oil spot can be delivered to refineries.